Forecasting COVID-19 infection trends and new hospital admissions in England due to SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Omicron (preprint)

ObjectivesOn November 26, 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 as a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VoC), named Omicron, originally identified in South Africa. Several mutations in Omicron indicate that it may have an impact on how it spreads, resistance to vaccination, or the severity of illness it causes. We used our previous modelling algorithms to forecast the spread of Omicron in England. DesignWe followed EQUATORs TRIPOD guidance for multivariable prediction models. SettingEngland. ParticipantsNot applicable. InterventionsNon-interventional, observational study with a predicted forecast of outcomes. Main outcome measuresTrends in daily COVID-19 cases with a 7-day moving average and of new hospital admissions. MethodsModelling included a third-degree polynomial curve in existing epidemiological trends on the spread of Omicron and a new Gaussian curve to estimate a downward trend after a peak in England. ResultsUp to February 15, 2022, we estimated a projection of 250,000 COVID-19 daily cases of Omicron spread in the worse scenario, and 170,000 in the "best" scenario. Omicron might represent a relative increase from the background daily rates of COVID-19 infection in England of mid December 2021 of 1.9 to 2.8-fold. With a 5-day lag-time, daily new hospital admissions would peak at around 5,063 on January 23, 2022 in the worse scenario. ConclusionThis warning of pandemic surge of COVID-19 due to Omicron is calling for further reinforcing in England and elsewhere of universal hygiene interventions (indoor ventilation, social distance, and face masks), and anticipating the need of new total or partial lockdowns in England.

Forecasting COVID-19 infection trends in the EU-27 countries, the UK and Switzerland due to SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Omicron (preprint)

Background: On November 26, 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 as a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VoC), named Omicron, originally identified in South Africa. Several mutations in Omicron indicate that it may have an impact on how it spreads, resistance to vaccination, or the severity of illness it causes. Methods: We used our previous modelling algorithms to forecast the spread of Omicron aggregated in the EU-27 countries, the United Kingdom and Switzerland, and report trends in daily cases with a 7-day moving average. We followed EQUATOR TRIPOD guidance for multivariable prediction models. Modelling included a third-degree polynomial curve in existing epidemiological trends on the spread of Omicron in South Africa, a five-parameter logistic (5PL) asymmetrical sigmoidal curve following a parametric growth in Europe, and a new Gaussian curve to estimate a downward trend after a peak. Results: Up to January 15, 2022, we estimated a background rate projection in EU-27 countries, the UK and Switzerland of about 145,000 COVID-19 daily cases without Omicron, which increases up to 440,000 COVID-19 daily cases in the worst scenario of Omicron spread, and 375,000 in the best scenario. Therefore, Omicron might represent a relative increase from the background daily rates of COVID-19 infection in Europe of 1.03-fold or 2.03-fold, that is up to a 200% increase. Conclusion: This warning pandemic surge due to Omicron is calling for further reinforcing of COVID-19 universal hygiene interventions (indoor ventilation, social distance, and face masks), and anticipating the need of new lockdowns in Europe.